The initial set-up "wizard" collects just four pieces of data from you — Age, Savings, Income & Monthly Savings. From those values, we create a high-level estimate of YOUR ENTIRE FINANCIAL FUTURE. Below are several of the assumptions we make — and which must absolutely be validated by you...
Certain Basic Settings can be found by clicking on the Main Menu button in the top right corner and choosing Settings.
The Start Date of your Trajectory is defaulted to the date you first completed the introductory "wizard". If you wish to change this value to start at the beginning of the year, for example, do so here.
Birth Year is the value you previously entered, and the Trajectory End Age is defaulted to 90, but of course you can change it to meet your own expectations — this field is located on the main page in the middle of the form, along with settings for Retirement Age and inflation Rate, as shown below:
NOTE: The Trajectory End Age may be extended to allow for additional years to be modeled. This is particularly helpful when modeling scenarios that include a younger spouse — simply set this number to include additional years and then set the End Age on individual Income / Expense items as appropriate.
The Wizard generates two Income Items — the first from your Current Age to your estimated Retirement Age, and the second from your Retirement Age to the Trajectory End Age. The Income 'Amount' for the second item is a VERY rough estimate of your Social Security benefits (see the example below).
You can (and should) change the Amount in the 2nd Item based on your actual situation. SSA.gov is a great place to get more accurate estimates of your Social Security benefits.
There's much more to say about Modeling Income, including how to show other Income streams (from a spouse, for example) — or how to account for Income Taxes and annual raises. See the Modeling Income Guide for more information on these and other income-related topics.
For your default Expenses, the Wizard generates a single item, with 2 Age Ranges. Age Ranges are a handy way of defining a single item that changes over different parts of your life. In this example the first Age Range spans until your estimated Retirement Age, and the second goes from Retirement Age to the End Age of your Trajectory, as illustrated below:
Why use Ranges rather that creating separate Items? Because ranges prevent you from accidentally overlapping Ages, and it makes "what-if" analysis far easier when your Trajectory becomes more complex.
The Wizard calculates the Expense Amount in the first range by subtracting your monthly savings from your monthly income. The second range is simply a 15% reduction of those expenses (since most folks spend less during their Retirement years).
Again, these are merely estimates to get you started. You should enter your own unique Expenses here, such as those that recur monthly (like utilities, food, entertainment, etc.) and those with specific Start and End Ages (such as a mortgage, car payment, college, etc.)
We recommend entering recurring expenses as a single Expense Item. You can detail what specific expenses are represented by clicking on the make Group button.
Expenses with specific Start/End Ages should be entered individually in order to more accurately calculate their financial impact — examples of both types of Expenses are shown below — the Item "Base Expenses" consists of a Group of different monthly expenses:
Again, there's much more to know about Expenses, so do read the Modeling Expenses Guide.
Like Expenses, we model a default Savings/Investment Account for you with two Age Ranges. The first has a % Growth rate of 5%, the second a rate of 3%. This reflects the common practice of investing more conservatively after Retirement (as illustrated below).Your default Account also contains your Effective Tax Rate, shown in the % Tax field, and which is also reduced in Retirement since most people have a lower Tax Rate during that time.
Again, why use Ranges rather that creating separate Items? Because Ranges prevent you from accidentally overlapping Ages and it makes "what-if" analysis far easier when your Trajectory becomes more complex.
Now in reality, you probably have funds in both low-interest accounts (like checking/savings accounts) and one or more higher- yielding accounts — both taxable and tax-deferred (such as an IRA or 401k). As elsewhere, you should model your accounts to reflect your unique financial situation.
Since OnTrajectory automatically calculates how much you save (based on your Income and Expenses), you need not designate any contributions to the default account that's created. You will see "automatic" in the Contributions/year field for that account. For all other accounts you create, you can designate contributions to be made.
In addition, this account cannot be deleted (because you always need a "place" to deposit funds whenever Income is greater than Expenses). The % Growth for the 'Deposit Account' represents the rate-of-return you expect on your investments generally (often placed in a taxable mutual fund or brokerage account).
Again, every person is different, and you should configure OnTrajectory to meet your unique situation. The example shown below shows someone with a 401k, Roth IRA, and a regular non-interest-bearing Checking account. The Contributions/yr field is used to indicate how much is going into their Retirement accounts each year.
As with Income and Expenses, there's more to learn about modeling Accounts & Taxes, including account drawdown rules around RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions) and Withdrawal Penalties. See the Modeling Accounts & Taxes Guide for more information.
To add a new Item, click the "Add" button beneath the Item table. A menu will appear on the left side of the screen. Select the Item you wish to add. To delete an Item, select the top "Trash" icon
To add a new Age Range beneath a row, select the "Add Range" icon . To delete the Age Range, select the "Trash" icon that corresponds to that Range.
Rather than entering a discrete value for your Retirement Age, such as '67' in an Income, Expense or Account item — you can enter 'R' to represent your retirement age.
In the example below, notice the End Age for Base Income and the Start Age for Social Security are set to 'R'. Since the Retirement Age is set to '67', Base Income's End Age will be calculated to be '66' (the last year the item is received) and Social Security's Start Age will be calculated to be '67' (the year the item begins).
The 'Retirement Age' and 'Inflation Rate' fields are located just above your Income, Expense & Account data. Changing your Retirement Age here, will universally change the value everywhere the 'R' is used — making 'what-if' analysis easier than ever before.
The 'Calculate Success %' button automatically runs both a Historical and Monte Carlo analysis on your data (see the guide Historical & Monte Carlo Analysis for more information on how to run each separately). OnTrajectory then averages the results and displays your 'chance of success'.
Two percentage values are produced. The first, called 'Chance of Success', represents the number of simulated Trajectories that result in an end amount above 0. The second is the number of Trajectories that result in an end amount above the Final Trajectory you have defined and is displayed next to the Final Trajectory amount. In other words, an 90% chance of success means that an ending amount above 0 was achieved in 90% of the Historical and Monte Carlo 'runs'. Again we urge you to read more about this type of analysis in the Historical & Monte Carlo Analysis guide.
It is important to note that this percentage is NO GUARANTEE of success in your investments, and successive runs may vary due to the random nature of Monte Carlo analysis — usually +/- 3%. Finally, NO information provided by OnTrajectory should be considered investing advice. All financial information is solely for educational purposes. Please see your own professional for personal investment advice.
Earn Reward Points just by using OnTrajectory — when you have at least 100 points, click the "My Referrals & Rewards" button and choose "Redeem Reward Points" to credit your account with a FREE month of our PowerPlan, which includes all the benefits below:
The fastest way to earn Reward Points is by referring friends to OnTrajectory — 100 points for each referral that registers (limit 12).
At this point, you've just scratched the surface of OnTrajectory. Click the Main Menu in the top right corner to access other Actions and/or Guidance on topics such as: